Asymmetry

Core Idea

Asymmetrical Risks: Upside is very small and down side is huge
Asymmetrical Values: Down side is very small but the upside is huge

Every effort does not return fair reward. Some effort is disproportionately beneficial vs harmful.

Practice

1. State the action
2. Upside - What happens if it works better than expected?
3. Downside - What happens if it fails?

Example 1 - Texting While Driving

• Upside: a funny cat picture
• Downside: cripple for life

Example 2 - Unprotected Sex

• Upside: fun for an hour
• Downside: HIV for the rest of your life

Example 3 - Cold Message to a Hero

• Upside: Opens a door that changes your career
• Downside: They ignore it

Example 4 - Launching a New Pricing Tier With Minimal Work

• Upside: Doubles revenue from power users
• Downside: A few ignore it

Other Considerations

• “Launching fast is always good.”
  Only if the cost of failure is reversible.
• “If it worked for Naval, it’ll work for me.”
  Asymmetry depends on context, timing, and edge. Not every 1% action returns 100x.

Referenced Links

• Naval on asymmetric returns (Twitter)
• James Clear on effort-to-impact ratio
• Chris Williamson Podcast with George Mack